People with the least skill in a domain tend to overestimate their ability the most — because the knowledge needed to perform well is the same knowledge needed to recognize you're performing badly.
The Dunning–Kruger effect: the skill you lack is the same skill you'd need to see that you lack it — so beginners overrate themselves.
A novice chess player, after a few wins against friends, feels nearly unbeatable. A grandmaster, facing opponents who punish every slip, is acutely aware of how much she still doesn't know. Confidence and competence often point in opposite directions.
Psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger found that people with the least skill in a field tend to overestimate their ability the most — because the very knowledge needed to perform well is the knowledge needed to notice you're performing badly. As you actually improve, you become more aware of your limits, and confidence often dips before it climbs.
Treat early confidence with suspicion, especially in a new domain. Seek feedback from people more skilled than you — they can see the gaps you can't. And when an expert sounds cautious while a beginner sounds certain, weight the caution. The less you know, the harder it is to know it.
It's a humility check and a bullshit detector in one — for your own confidence and everyone else's.
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